Insights

Notes on forecasting, evaluation and applied AI.

Occasional analysis from work in progress, with evidence and inference kept separate.

Operating analysis · 19 September 2026

Signal Samar: one workflow, different audiences

How to preserve the source evidence while adapting the treatment for different channels and audiences.

Read the analysis →

Research

Research agenda

Forecasting, calibration, human judgement, question quality and human-AI evaluation.

View research →